Digital trade has grown nearly twice as fast as goods trade over the past decade and is becoming a key driver of global growth. This conclusion comes from a WTO Staff Working Paper titled “Great Expectations: Quantifying the Potential Economic Impact of the WTO Agreement on E-Commerce” (ERSD-2025-06, authored by Eddy Bekkers, Javier López-González, and Roger So, published on 24 September 2025). The paper represents the views of the authors and not the official position of the WTO or its Members, as stated in the publication’s disclaimer.
The study estimates that the WTO Agreement on E-Commerce (AoE) could generate between USD 2.4 trillion and USD 8.7 trillion in cumulative additional global trade by 2040—not per year, but as a total gain over the 2025–2040 period, compared to a scenario without the agreement.
The findings suggest that adopting the AoE could bring substantial gains for the global economy—particularly if all 166 WTO Members were to participate.
According to the paper, GDP among participating economies would rise by 0.43% and trade by 0.97%, while global GDP would grow by 0.14% and world trade by 0.58%—equivalent to USD 2.4 trillion in additional trade by 2040. Each year of delay in implementing the Agreement is estimated to cost about USD 159 billion in foregone trade.
If, however, the entire WTO membership joined the AoE (the “AoE166” scenario), global GDP would expand by 0.51% and trade by 2.3%, resulting in a total gain of up to USD 8.7 trillion by 2040. The greatest benefits would accrue to low- and lower-middle-income economies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where digital trade could raise GDP by as much as 2.5% and exports by 4.5%.
The authors emphasize that global digital trade integration remains in its infancy—only 8.5% of the way toward full openness. While regional digital economy and trade agreements (such as the DEPA and the UK–Singapore DEA) have proliferated, the WTO continues to play a central role in shaping the global framework for digital trade.
The WTO e-commerce agreement—whose text was stabilized in July 2024—covers areas such as electronic transaction frameworks, e-signatures, consumer protection, cybersecurity, and paperless trade. However, it does not yet include commitments on cross-border data flows, data localization, or source code—topics the authors view as potential subjects for a “second phase” of negotiations.
The study clearly highlights a network effect: the more countries that join the AoE, the greater the benefits for all. Therefore, the authors urge WTO Members to avoid unnecessary delays and to encourage broad-based participation. “Each year of delay leaves billions of dollars of untapped potential on the table,” conclude Bekkers, López-González, and So.
Political Context at the WTO
The WTO e-commerce agreement originated from the Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) launched at the 2017 Buenos Aires Ministerial Conference. After several years of negotiations, 71 WTO Members reached agreement on a stabilized text in July 2024, which is expected to be incorporated into Annex IV of the WTO as a voluntary plurilateral agreement.
By late 2025, WTO Members continue to debate how best to integrate the AoE into the WTO framework—whether to keep it as a voluntary plurilateral deal or to move toward broader application to all Members. Several developing countries have emphasized the importance of ensuring that the Agreement helps close the digital divide and enables smaller economies to benefit from e-commerce growth.
Although a final political decision has not yet been reached, the WTO Staff Working Paper sends a clear message: every step toward broader participation and faster implementation brings measurable benefits for global growth and inclusive development.
Summary by DigitalTrade4.EU